NHL Possession Efficiency Ratings

NHL statistics, ratings, possession analysis

2016 NHL Playoffs log5

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2016 NHL Playoffs log5 Analysis

The log5 analysis was developed by Bill James. This method of evaluation is used to determine the difficulty of each team’s path to the Cup Finals using expected winning probability. The input for the formula is derived from the final 2015-16 NHL regular season adjusted pythagorean(Pyth) ratings I posted earlier, which you can view here: 2016 Possession Efficiency Ratings

As you can see below, the log5 analysis measures the difficulty of each team’s path, taking into consideration potential match ups that could occur. For example, the result of the log5 analysis below is showing that Pittsburgh has a 73.5% chance of beating the NY Rangers in the first round and advancing to the 2nd Round.  Pittsburgh has a 42.7% chance of defeating the NY Rangers in the first round, and then defeating the winner of the Washington-Philadelphia series to advance to the Conference Finals. From there, depending on who Pittsburgh would meet in the Conference Finals, Pittsburgh would have a 28.4% chance of winning the first three rounds to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

The results of the log5 analysis are showing that in the East, #7 NY Islanders have a 46.9% chance of defeating #2 Florida in the first round. In the West, #7 Nashville has a 48.2% chance of upsetting #2 Anaheim in the first round. The final results of the log5 analysis are showing that Pittsburgh has a 15.8% chance of winning the cup this year.  Los Angeles has a 13.6% chance to win the cup.

Screen Shot 2016-04-11 at 11.25.57 PM

Written by RReed

April 10, 2016 at 11:34 PM

Posted in Uncategorized

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