NHL Possession Efficiency Ratings

NHL statistics, ratings, possession analysis

2017 NHL Playoffs log5 Analysis

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2017 NHL Playoffs log5 Analysis
The log5 analysis was developed by Bill James. This method of evaluation is used to determine the predicted winning probability of one team over another. The input for the formula is derived from the final 2016-17 NHL regular season Possession Efficiency Ratings.

As you can see below, the log5 analysis measures the difficulty of each team’s path, taking into consideration potential match ups that could occur. For example, the result of the log5 analysis below is showing that Washington has a 62.4% chance of defeating Toronto in the first round and advancing to the 2nd Round.

Washington then would have a 33.2% chance of defeating Toronto in the first round and then defeating the winner of the Pittsburgh-Columbus series to advance to the Conference Finals.

From there, depending on who Washington would meet in the Conference Finals, they would have a 19.2% chance of winning the first 3 rounds and advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals.  Washington would then have an 11.3% chance to win the first 3 rounds and the Cup final.

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Written by RReed

April 10, 2017 at 9:41 PM

Posted in Uncategorized

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